ACADEMY OF DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT – INSTITUTE OF SKY POLITICS

Did not win, but lost, and not at chess, but at cards

War is always a clash of two sides (coalitions), but ultimately the beneficiary is the third side standing above the fray.

"Historical analogies are not always relevant, and sometimes even harmful," however the fall in early December 2024 of the regime of B. Assad, held by Russia for 9 years, in Syria, from a strategic height and on a global scale, resembles the collapse of the pro-Soviet regime of B. Karmal in Afghanistan, which the USSR held for the same 9 years.

Both the Soviet military presence in Afghanistan (1979-1989) and the Russian military presence in Syria (2015-2024) were determined by the confrontation of two "superpowers," Russia (USSR) with the USA, to the benefit of China, which stood above the fray and covertly supported the Americans.

In 1989, with the end of the Cold War between the Soviet bloc and the collective West, China, in exchange for the normalization of Soviet-Chinese relations, forced the USSR to remove "three obstacles": withdraw Soviet troops from Afghanistan, withdraw Vietnamese troops from Cambodia, remove troops from Mongolia and pull them back from the border. Thus the PRC gained access to the resources of Siberia.

In 2024-2025, the end of the "hot phase" of the Third World War of a new hybrid type on the Ukrainian theater of operations is anticipated. The "friends of peace" with burdens for the Russian Federation are led by China.

In 2001, US troops took the place of Soviet troops in Afghanistan. Having taken responsibility upon itself, the USA, after twenty years of "Resolute Support" in Afghanistan, suffered complete failure at the hands of the Taliban. The beneficiary of the "failed mission" of the USA and NATO turned out to be the PRC with its "one belt, one road" strategy.

The place of Russian troops in Syria will surely be taken by US and NATO troops. The collective West will take upon itself responsibility for the chaos of the confrontation among groups of Syrian "rebels" and, just as in Afghanistan, will strain itself with efforts to bring Syria to democracy. And the beneficiary will again be China.

What is fundamental is that Moscow every time plays out a binary (chess) scheme: "Whoever is not with us is against us, and the third is superfluous, there is no third." Whereas China every time applies the Law of Change in a triad of three forces, with the stratagem of "the cunning monkey on the mountain watches the clash of two tigers in the valley."

If Russian diplomacy of the Americanists Lavrov – Ushakov had switched from the binary scheme of politics to a ternary one and in time substituted the game from the model of the "Great Chessboard" to the "Card Table of History," Russia would not have borne the costs of nine years of a war of attrition. But by going into a passive stance and pushing the USA into the role of hegemon opposing China, it would every time find itself the winner by the natural course of things.

The pinnacle of military art is victory without the use of weapons.

Executed by Andrey Devyatov No982 of 09.12.2024

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