ACADEMY OF DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT – INSTITUTE OF SKY POLITICS

On the path to a deal on Ukraine

Immediately after the APEC summit of 15-16.11.24 in Peru, at which during a personal meeting the leaders of the US and the PRC, Biden and Xi Jinping, agreed on current issues of US-China relations, including the situation in Ukraine, the incumbent US President Biden authorized the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use American weapons (range up to 300 km) to strike deep into the territory of the Russian Federation.

Following the US, European NATO countries are considering the question of permitting Ukraine to strike Russia with their missiles (with a range of up to 560 km).

No sooner had the Western media on 17.11.24 reported the American permission for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to strike deep into the Russian Federation with long-range missiles, than threats of world nuclear war.

The official Kremlin on 18.11.24 firmly stated: "The fact that this is a reckless and potentially dangerous step toward a new round of escalation of tension around the conflict — we will see. But the fact that such actions will not be left without a proper response — that is unequivocal."

Back in September, Russian President V. Putin stated that the use of long-range Western weapons to strike Russia "would mean that the NATO countries: the US, European countries are at war with Russia."

On 19.11.24 Putin signed a fresh decree "On the Approval of the Fundamentals of State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence."

The document provides for a retaliatory nuclear strike also in response to an attack by a non-nuclear country (Ukraine) with the support of a nuclear state (the US and NATO). "A very important text, it must become the object of very deep analysis both in our country and abroad."

In other words, the Kremlin's design is to use the updating of the doctrine on Russia's use of nuclear weapons to draw universal attention to the possible consequences, unacceptable for countries and peoples, of the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.

If, however, one asks at what targets (territories) Russia could deliver a nuclear deterrence strike in response to strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine with missiles from NATO countries deep into Russia, then it is unlikely to be Washington, London, Paris, Berlin, or even Warsaw.

A missile-nuclear intimidation strike outside the territory of Ukraine will lead not to deterrence of the conflict, but to a counterstrike with NATO missiles at targets on the territory of Russia. That is, in order to make the enemies afraid, one will have to strike Kyiv, and this changes nothing in the configuration of the course and the military-political outcome of the conflict.

One recalls the comparison of the result of B. Yeltsin's statement, made by him in Beijing on 09.12.1999: "Bill Clinton allowed himself to pressure Russia. He apparently forgot for a second, for a minute, for half a minute what Russia is, that Russia possesses a full arsenal of nuclear weapons. Let him not forget himself, what world he lives in... As we agree with Jiang Zemin, so it will be. We will dictate with him how everyone should live and work, and not he."

And already on 31.12.1999 Yeltsin suddenly handed over the post of President of the Russian Federation to a successor: "I am tired... I am leaving. Take care of Russia."

Signs that in the Kremlin they in fact do not want an escalation of hostilities in Ukraine are:

■ the transfer of the ideologist of the nuclear threat, Patrushev, from the post of Secretary of the Security Council to the harmless post of Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation for shipbuilding.
■ the replacement of the organizer of the SMO, Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Shoigu, with the thoughtful and cautious economist Belousov.
■ the refusal of the planners of the SMO to carry out another wave of mobilization.

As for the whipping up by Russian media of the threat of world nuclear war emanating from the collective West, this suggests the thought that the symbol of Russia's glorious victory in the war of meanings on the Ukrainian theater of operations will become, wisely, according to the Decree of 19.11.24, the state policy of the Russian leadership in the field of nuclear deterrence of the escalation of combined-arms hostilities in Ukraine and the prevention of a worldwide catastrophe.

Friends of peace in Russian-Chinese diplomacy

Executed by Andrey Devyatov No. 977 of 20.11.2024

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