ACADEMY OF DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT – INSTITUTE OF SKY POLITICS

Russia and the PRC can be linked via the Ob and Irtysh rivers

Understanding of meanings is achieved not by the logic of convictions, but only by comparison with another. Such an "other" is the trans-Siberian North–South transport route capable of linking China through Kazakhstan and Russia along the Irtysh and Ob rivers with the world ocean.

The source of the Irtysh is in the mountains of the Mongolian Altai. Through China the river flows under the name Black Irtysh. Further down in Kazakhstan, from Lake Zaisan, it is already the Irtysh proper. On the territory of Russia the Irtysh flows into the Ob river. From the source to the Ob Gulf of the Kara Sea it is only 5,410 km.

The Siberian river route along the North–South longitude intersects with the latitudinal Northern Sea Route West–East in the Ob Gulf. Here are located the main liquefied natural gas production facilities: Yamal LNG (capacity 16.5 million tonnes per year, based on the port of Sabetta) and Arctic LNG-2 (design capacity 19.8 million tonnes).

In the investment projects of these complexes, besides Russia, energy companies of France, the PRC, and Japan participate.

As a result of anti-Russian sanctions, the participation of foreign shareholders has been suspended, and the Arctic LNG-2 project has been frozen.

The export of products from the Ob Gulf is carried out by ice-class gas carrier tankers (independently at ice thickness up to 1.4 m) and with icebreaker escort (now behind nuclear icebreakers of the "Arktika" type at ice thickness up to 2.8 m).

Year-round navigation is possible only to Europe in the Western sector of the Northern Sea Route, to which the Kara Sea belongs.

Navigation along the "eastern route" is carried out for 3 months, from August to November. Navigation in the winter-spring period requires breaking through pack ice 4–6 meters thick, which in the shallow waters of the Laptev Sea come right up to the New Siberian Islands and the islands of Severnaya Zemlya. But icebreakers of the "Leader" type – capable of overcoming ice up to 4.3 m thick – will not appear before 2028. However, even then the cost of logistics there will be enormous.

That is why the water route for exporting LNG and other resources of the north upstream to the south to the PRC acts as an alternative to the harsh conditions of navigation across the seas of the Arctic Ocean.

Back in the 19th century this cheapest mode of transport was used to transport ore from China to Russia. Now in China a railway line reaches the town of Beitun on the Black Irtysh. That is, there is an opportunity to supplement the "Belt and Road" initiative with a northern route leading to Central Asia, Russia, and further along the Northern Sea Route to Northern Europe (see the diagram in the header).

For comparison, in terms of cargo base along the latitudinal trans-Caspian transport route between China and Kazakhstan, 23–27 million tonnes of export cargo are transported per year.

As for domestic transportation, in Soviet times: the 1970s–80s of the 20th century, river transport carried up to 11 million tonnes of cargo along the Irtysh. Now shipping between the PRC and Russia within Kazakhstan has fallen into decline. However, the infrastructure of shore structures, wharves, and berths has been preserved, and the locks are working.

General conditions of navigation along the Irtysh and Ob rivers:

The ice-free season of economic activity on the Ob – Irtysh route is a little more than half a year, from April to November.

In the upper reaches the water freezes at the end of November, in the lower reaches — at the beginning of November. The average ice thickness varies from 65 to 100 cm; in the lower reaches of the Ob it reaches a maximum of 130 cm. The average number of days with ice cover is 161–176. The ice drift lasts 3–8 days. In Kazakhstan on the Irtysh there are three hydroelectric dams with locking.

Regular navigation is now organized only on the route below the Ust-Kamenogorsk hydroelectric station in Kazakhstan to the Ob Gulf.

However, in places, due to shallow water at the riffles, navigation on the Irtysh has become very problematic (guaranteed depths of only 140–180 cm). That is, on the Irtysh serious dredging work is needed; the fairway must be cleared and sections for the passage of vessels with a displacement of up to 3 thousand tonnes must be marked. And intensive use of the locks will increase the water flow.

The route of the cheapest river transport across Western Siberia will connect millions of people. In the Irtysh basin are located major industrial cities of China – Fuyun and Burqin; of Kazakhstan – Ust-Kamenogorsk, Semey, Kurchatov, Aksu, Pavlodar; of Russia – Omsk, Tara, Tobolsk, Khanty-Mansiysk.

The main thing is obvious: the return of international navigation to the Irtysh is not merely a transit transport project, but a strategic initiative, capable of changing the economic landscape of the region, turning it into a key trade, scientific and cultural hub of Central Asia and Western Siberia.

The global project Greater Eurasia – the Third Hordeis easily capable of raising and realizing the possibilities of the northern river route of the shared destiny of China, Kazakhstan and Russia. After all, the construction of even hundreds of river tankers, dry-cargo ships, container ships and a dozen river icebreakers is not a "black hole" of spending on giants of the icebreaker fleet of the "Leader" type and the economic development of the deserted icy desert of the Arctic.

Executed by Andrey Devyatov No995 of 04.02.25

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