ACADEMY OF DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT – INSTITUTE OF SKY POLITICS

On the diplomacy of threats in a new epoch

The creator of Kremlin meanings, V. Surkov, introduced into political science the concepts of the operative paradigm of the policy of the New Russia: "Putin's Long State," "the deep people," "the Great North." Within the framework of this paradigm, the dream of the Russian Federation also manifested itself – security.

On the internal contour, where terrorism, extremism and separatism are declared the main threats, the FSB acts as the core of state security.

On the external contour, with the adopted concept of a multipolar world, security resting on military power is ensured by the MFA. 

The conceptual basis of the current policy of the Russian Federation in matters of great-power security is the Ryabkov Ultimatum of 15.12.2021 with a demand to NATO to push the bloc's military borders back to the line of 1997 (with the texts of the corresponding agreements attached).

In response to the refusal of the USA and NATO to accept the collective security measures proposed by the MFA of the Russian Federation, there followed the deployment by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation of the Special Military Operation on the Ukrainian TVD of the European theater of war and a demonstration of a package of new-generation military-technical means of destruction (Sarmats, Poseidons, Avangards, Kinzhals, Burevestniks, Oreshniks, Zircons, Lantsets, etc.).

According to a statement by the President of the Russian Federation, V. Putin, "these means of destruction will ensure for Russia the possibility of maintaining strategic parity with the West for decades to come."

According to the assessment of Sky Politics theorists, the missile-nuclear potential of the new means of destruction will certainly ensure strategic parity with the West for decades to come, but as for the historical victory of the Russian Federation in the struggle for the New World Order – that is hardly likely.

Missile-nuclear potential is a phenomenon of industrial society, an attribute of a "superpower" in the balance of threats of the bipolar world of the USSR\USA.

In the information society, the potential of computational capabilities and artificial intelligence infrastructure comes to the forefront of historical hegemonism. The AI superpowers are the USA and the PRC.

Having lost the status of superpower, Russia descended to the level of an influential regional force, which conditioned its collision with Europe and sharpened the question of security in the West.

To justify the change in great-power status, the Russian Federation adopted a concept of a multipolar world that is consoling for the national pride of the Great Russians. In the heart of the Eurasian continent, Russia itself assumed all-round defense against danger from the West, South and East, with a strategic rear in the Arctic Ocean.

Sky Politics holds that the chimera of a multipolar world is a conceptual ambush and the main cause of the Russian Federation's strategic loneliness in the Third World War of a new hybrid type.

The Americans, meanwhile, demonstratively withdrew from practically all treaties on the limitation of strategic armaments, refused to modernize the Minuteman silo-based ICBMs and the Poseidon SLBMs, and abstained from creating hypersonic-generation missiles. They assume that with the transition to the information society a revolution in military affairs is also taking place.

War of the new epoch is not a war of engines and not a war of missiles. It is a war of reconnaissance-strike complexes based on AI. Hence the bet on companies: P. Thiel's and A. Karp's "Palantir" (the digital brain of war and peace); I. Musk's "Starlink" (10,000 satellites of global internet); P. Luckey's "Anduril" (UAVs, AI robots).

The endless path of the cunning of the Chinese, with a showy demonstration of the military power of the PLA while evading discussion of strategic arms control issues, in ensuring the Chinese dream places its bet on the full technological independence of the PRC by 2030, with emphasis on the independent production of all components of big data infrastructure, including machines for printing chips (currently a monopoly of the TNC ASML, the Netherlands).

Thus, in an epoch when the superpowers of the new world order, the PRC and the USA, are occupied with the technologies of the 6th mode of economy of the new epoch, where the New Russia has "fallen behind forever," missile-nuclear parity does not guarantee the Kremlin against historical defeat.

Having concentrated on security – essentially a calm, comfortable and well-fed life – Putin's Long State has technologically fallen behind the vanguard of the 4th industrial revolution. In the 2018 address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, V. Putin, having assumed the office of President of the Russian Federation for a 4th term, stated: "Falling behind – that is the main threat, that is our enemy".

The cause of the New Russia's falling behind is the liberal reforms of the Soviet command-administrative system, which turned a industrial economy into a trading one, where even FSB warriors became traders (article by Gen. Cherkesov V.V., Kommersant, 09.10.2007).

At the call of the commander-in-chief, the country set about closing the gap. However, there is neither a project for seizing the future nor an image of that Russia which will belong to the Kremlin champions of security. In Putin's Russian Federation, security itself has become the goal of state-building.

Sky Politics identifies the following factors of sovereign security:

- a strong economy of well-being for the broad masses of the people

- police forces loyal to the authorities on the internal contour

- combat-ready, motivated army and navy on the external contour

- an attractive image of the future – a captivating dream for the masses

- a theory and a future-oriented project for realizing the dream

- international friendly support for the project 

At the same time, non-material factors of security are more important than material ones. This conclusion is confirmed by the practice of the victory of the "Reds" in the civil war in Russia of 1918-1922, namely:

The revolutionaries – the Bolsheviks – showed the people both an image of a bright future and a theory for building that future, where: "Who was nothing, will become everything" (a phrase from the anthem "The Internationale").

The counterrevolution – the officer corps, the priests, the service nobility, the large, middle, and small bourgeoisie – apart from the patriotic call of the White movement to fight: "For a Great, united and indivisible Russia," had neither a theory nor a project for the future.

In our time, against the backdrop of the desperate situation of the Russian Federation with its lag in the sphere of NBIC technologies – the convergence of the 6th mode of the economy (new materials, biotech, digitalization, AI) – Sky Politics has substantiated the possibility of "overtaking without catching up".

Sky Politics has both a system of views that no one has copied, and an image of a bright future, and a substantiated future-oriented civilizational project Greater Eurasia – the Third Horde. 

In the picture of the possibilities of the future, leaving to transhumanism the prospect of AI algorithms, robotics, biotech, quantum cryptography and other things of the mind of the material world, Russia could itself build the 7th techno-mode as an instrument of the spiritual sphere, with emphasis on resonant wave technologies of influence on the psyche, collective consciousness, worldview, forming models of behavior, ethical norms and the very mode of thinking. 

The lag in digital technologies of the abstract-conceptual mode of thinking did not deprive people who speak and think in Russian of the ability of this "friend of paradoxes" for the creativity of the new.

When in the middle of the 21st century the "anthropological transition" into the "life of the age to come," expected by science and proclaimed by the dogma of the Christian faith, takes place, then "the last will become first." Thus will take place the social revenge of Russia. 

Executed by Andrey Devyatov No1136 of 19.08.26

Loading, 0