ACADEMY OF DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT – INSTITUTE OF SKY POLITICS

Threats and challenges to the Russian Federation in the transition to a new world order

In political geography, Holy Rus’ within the Golden Horde and the Muscovite Tsardom of Ivan the Terrible were the East (we are Scythians).

Adopted by the secular authority from the "Judaizers" in the 16th century, the doctrine of Moscow – the Third Rome began to shift the worldview of the "eastern correct teaching" (Orthodoxy) toward Paulinism (the Apostle Paul's subordination of the Teaching of Christ to the authority of Rome).

Peter I the Great, having "cut a window to Europe," in the 18th century finally attached the Russian Empire to the European West. The ruling dynasty became European: the Holstein-Gottorp-Romanovs.

The Soviet Union, in the rays of the rising sun on its coat of arms, was a Great Eurasian power, while the New Russia of democratic choice, albeit with the doctrine of "Moscow – the Third Rome," suddenly abandoned its geopolitical position on the East–West axis and became the North.

The conceptual pitfall of identifying New Russia with the North, in the perspective of the challenges of the new era of tectonic processes of global transformation, includes the following aspects:

■ In the biblical worldview, the recognition of Russian President V. Putin as the "northern king – heir of Rome" (Moscow – the Third Rome) places Russia under the defeat foretold by the prophets in the "Battle of the End" (the Third World
War of a new hybrid type).

■ In the Chinese secret doctrine "Three Norths. Four Seas," the resources of Siberia and the Far East "in the embrace of friendship" are placed under the peaceful subjugation (almost free of charge) by the Middle Kingdom of the yellow people.

■ In the American geopolitics of Admiral Mahan's seas, the stoking of the "yellow peril" is intended to keep Russia pinned against the Arctic Ocean and prevent it from going south beyond 40°N. Hence the reliance on the Northern Sea Route.

■ In the prospect of Russia's development relying on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) lies a false goal, unachievable due to natural conditions: replacing the historical Eurasian East–West axis with the axis of the Civilization of the North – the Global South with a waste of strength, the loss of a worthy place in the new world order, and disappointment from unfulfilled hopes.

Let us examine the last aspect as a phantom image of the future.

Navigation along the NSR is limited by climate and hydrography: climate means not only the months of navigational polar night, cold and ice thickness, but also dense fogs with wave heights of 7 meters on open water; hydrography means the shallow waters of the straits.

The NSR does not have a single, fixed route. The route retains its general direction but "migrates" in latitude between the continental coast and the North Pole depending on the constantly changing ice conditions.

Perennial pack ice makes it impossible to lay a route north of the Russian islands — even if convoys of ships "leap out" into the deep beyond the boundaries of the Russian territorial waters, they inevitably have to return inside to pass through the straits. Perennial ice is far thicker and stronger than first-year ice, which is only 1.0–1.5 m, whereas perennial ice is up to 4 m level, and up to 6 meters hummocked pack ice.

From the point of view of navigation, the most serious limitation on the NSR is the New Siberian Islands. Here the depth of the Sannikov Strait allows the passage of ships with a draft of no more than 11.6 meters. Moreover, the bottom of this strait is constantly being reshaped by sea currents, so constant hydrographic surveying is needed, which is so far lacking. On the traditional route, all shoals and sandbars are precisely charted, but here there is no bottom chart. And the shifting ice field also forces deviations from the route to who knows where.

The depth is even less, only 11 meters, in the Dmitry Laptev Strait, which connects the East Siberian Sea and the Laptev Sea between the continental coast and Bolshoy Lyakhovsky Island.

The draft of large container ships of the Suezmax class is 16 meters. And the depths, even when bypassing the New Siberian Islands, are 13 m, meaning large container ships cannot pass along the NSR.

And if the depths of the straits were quite sufficient for the passage of Liberty-type ships with a displacement of 14 thousand tons and a draft of 8.5 m, then for super-container ships with a capacity of 23 thousand containers, supertankers and bulkers with a draft of 16 meters, the NSR in the straits is impassable. And even for container ships of 13 thousand containers with a draft of 12.5 m — it is still impassable. Only for moderate container ships of 6 thousand containers is passage still possible. In reality, Chinese ships of 400 containers pass along the NSR. The working draft of Russian nuclear icebreakers — 9 meters — serves as a benchmark. Plus the prolonged waiting for an icebreaker while a convoy assembles negates the advantages of the NSR as the shortest and fastest route between Europe and Asia.

The depth of the Suez Canal is 21 meters. It is for this depth that the giants of COSCO, Maersk, and Evergreen were built: with a length of up to 400 m and a width of 50 m with a draft of 16 m, they hold 20,000 standard containers (TEU).

That is, to replace one super-container ship on the route through the Suez Canal when transporting 20,000 TEU along the NSR, 50 small container ships of 400 containers each are needed. No market economy can withstand such an alternative in terms of profitability.

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That is why only 30-40 foreign vessels pass along the NSR per year, whereas through the Suez Canal as many as 18 thousand (18,000).

Only global warming, which has been talked about so much lately, is capable of "canceling" this specificity. But talk is one thing, and the ice conditions of the NSR water area are quite another.

Sky Politics, relying on the dogma of the Light from the East of pre-schism Orthodoxy; the Law of change, according to which in the corresponding cycle of destruction the East mentally overcomes the Center occupied by China and the geopolitics of Eurasianism, – identifies Russia not with the geographical North, but with the ontological East.

From the self-identification of Rus’ as the East, for building relations with China as a family of peoples of non-Western civilizations, in the perspective of coupling with the Chinese strategy "One Belt, One Road," there follows the Russian strategy "Three Belts. Two Roads."

"One Belt, One Road" is a strategy for realizing the Chinese Dream through repetition in the cycle of the Great Silk Road between East and West. "One Belt" is the transcontinental land Economic Belt of the New Silk Road. And "one road" is the Maritime Silk Road of the 21st century.

Sky Politics shows that interaction between the Russian Federation and the PRC will require linkage both along the East–West line and along the North–South line. Moreover, this is not simply about a transport corridor, but about Russia's "Caspian strategy" as an independent and self-sufficient third force. Hence the formula "Two Roads."

As for the formula "Three Belts," Sky Politics speaks of:

■ The Economic Belt of the New Silk Road.

■ The Political Belt of the Third Horde, as a family of peoples – heirs of the Unified State of Genghis Khan.

■ The Cultural Belt of the values of non-Western civilizations.

This will be sufficient for the Russian Federation to slip out of the North's ambush.

Executed by Andrey Devyatov No. 980 of 01.12.2024

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